Friday, October 31, 2008

recession now?

The standard medicine for a recession is more government spending on infrastructure (roads and bridges), an extension of unemployment benefits to prop up demand (and relieve suffering), grants to cities and states so they can keep spending and not add to the recession with their own set of cutbacks, and interest-rate cuts. Those fiscal moves are exactly the package of fixes that the Democrats in Congress have proposed for a second stimulus package. I think that kind of plan would indeed be good news for infrastructure companies and local governments, and could well reduce how far the economy will fall in this recession. However, the amount of money Congress is talking about -- and the amount in the first stimulus package (remember those checks that some of us got?) -- is small compared with the amount that the credit crunch has taken out of consumer buying power. Add to that the flip side of the wealth effect -- people spend less when their houses and stock portfolios are worth less -- and you can see why this recession is a lot more likely to look like the long recessions of 1973-75 and 1980-82 than the blink-and-they're-over recessions of 1990-91 and 2001. - Jim Jubak
Joseph Steiglitz is an economist who predicts that we are talking 2010 for a recovery, not 2009, as many are hoping. A bottom may be put in during 2009 but the economy wont start growing until 2010. Batten down the hatches. Tighten your belts everybody- everybody EXCEPT City government, of course, who are somehow immune, ignorant, or just could care less about the situation of the average residents.

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