by Martin LaMonica
BOSTON--Ford Motor expects to manufacture as many as 2 million all-electric and gas-electric vehicles in the next 10 years, betting that rising oil prices and consumer interest will sustain a long-term transition to new technologies.
The company has set a goal of making 10 percent to 25 percent of its fleet "electrified" by 2020, which represents somewhere between 800,000 and 2 million cars, said Nancy Gioia at a media event here on Wednesday. Ford announced on Wednesday that Gioia will hold a newly created position of director of global electrification, which covers hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery-electric vehicles.
Plug-in electric vehicles promise to offer a much lower cost-per-mile than gasoline cars and deliver substantial environmental benefits. But in the near term, hybrids will likely represent the largest volume in the mix of technologies, said Gioia at the event.
"We've finally demonstrated the technology, the life, the durability, the safety (of hybrids)--all of that has reached a comfort zone to make it viable. Now it's going to be affordability that will drive mass market adoption," she said.
A demo of a Ford Focus, done with Magna, that runs on batteries alone. Ford plans to introduce the car in 2011.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET)
Ford is now working on an updated generation of its hybrid power train which will be used on its plug-in hybrid vehicles, which will come to market in 2012. Equipped with a larger battery than a traditional hybrid, the company projects its plug-in hybrid cars will allow drivers to go about 30 miles in electric mode, with the gasoline engine kicking in as needed for acceleration during those initial miles.
Before then, though, Ford plans to release an all-electric Focus compact sedan in 2011. An all-electric Transit Connect utility van is scheduled for release in 2011.
The electric Focus will be built in Michigan on the same manufacturing lines that make the gasoline version of the car. The car, which is expected to have a higher upfront cost than a gas Focus because of the large battery, which will offer 23 kilowatt-hours of storage, or about 100 miles of driving range.
In addition to electrification, Ford is implementing a number of other efficiency enhancements to gasoline engines, with an eye toward high volume. Earlier this year, Ford started introducing its EcoBoost direct-injection turbo technology which allows 4-cylinder cars to have the same power as 6-cylinder models.
Ford is also developing "start-stop" technology where a vehicle's engine turns off after being immobile for a few seconds, such as a stop light. This technology will come to manual transmission Fords in Europe next year and the company expects to bring it to automatic transmissions as well, Gioia said.
Opening a niche for pure electrics
For all the excitement around the potential for electric vehicles at Ford and other automakers, there is skepticism over how much all-electric cars will appeal to consumers, at least in the next decade.
Nancy Gioia, director of Ford global electrification
(Credit: Ford Motor) For consumers, there's the ongoing concern over "range anxiety" where a driver can't find a spot to recharge during a drive. Also, there aren't many charging spots in public places, complicating the picture for city dwellers, for example.
Still, Ford expects growth from plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles. There are many consumers and fleet vehicle drivers who have relatively short driving cycles on repeatable paths, making them good candidates for either type. Demand for battery-electrics may be driven by cities which have created incentives for low-carbon transportation technologies or emissions-free zones, Gioia added.
"So whether it's incentivized or just driving behavior, we do see growth in battery electrics around the world. I'm not sure North America will be the driver," she said. "We may have the early-adopter lead, but if major infrastructure is not put in place, it will be hard to promote that."
During the media day, IHS Global Insight analyst John Wolkonowicz projected that pure electric vehicles and range-extended electric vehicles, like the Chevy Volt, will represent just over 1 percent of the total market by 2014. All electrics will outsell range-extended vehicles, he said.
Is the grid ready?
As any auto industry executive will tell you, the transition to plug-in electric vehicles requires coordination with utilities.
If large volumes of vehicles plugged into the grid at the same time, more expensive and polluting power plants may need to be constructed to meet the demand. To avoid that, automakers and smart-grid software companies are developing smart-charging technology that will allow vehicle charging at off-peak times, typically the overnight hours.
National Grid is one of several utilities working with the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Department of Energy on a study to measure the effects of plug-in electric vehicles on the grid. At this point, National Grid is mainly gathering data on electricity usage and charge patterns, said Steven Tobias, principal analyst for technology and innovation at National Grid on Wednesday.
Farther out, utilities could rely on plugged-in vehicles for short-term storage to stabilize the grid. But National Grid's main concern is making sure that plug-in electric vehicles work well with smart-grid home energy management systems, said Stan Blazewicz, the global head of technology at the utility.
Adding a few thousand plug-in electric vehicles across National Grid's Massachusetts and New York regions wouldn't be much of a concern in terms of demand, Blazewicz said. But utilities and automakers expect that "clusters" of consumers in neighborhoods will buy them. "When you get 100 vehicles all in the same area, that's when it becomes a challenge for us," he said.
There is technology that will allow utilities to control the rate of charging without creating an inconvenience for the consumer, he added. "At some point, we need the smart grid to manage EVs. We don't want to be the roadblock."
For its part, Ford is developing an in-car charge-management program and wireless system to communicate directly with smart meters, Gioia said.
When it comes to battery-electric or range-extended vehicles, one of the biggest barriers to consumers in the near term will be the higher upfront price, said Wolkonowicz. Government policies will "get us sliding down the technology curve where more and more people will see this as something they want to do," he said.
Utility National Grid is testing one Ford Escape which was converted to be a plug-in hybrid to see how electric vehicles will impact the grid.
(Credit: Martin LaMonica/CNET) Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin.
Topics: TransportationTags: EVs,electric vehicles,Ford,battery electric vehicles,plug-in hybridsShare:
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Honda plans return to larger hybrids Add a Comment (Log in or register) (20 Comments) prev 1 next by rp69 October 15, 2009 5:05 AM PDT
I recall seeing articles regarding their Mazda division pushing toward Hydrogen, wonder if Ford has any plans to incorporate Hydrogen based motors to their product line. Assuming that the infrastructure (filling stations) are in place why not forego gasoline altogether? The thought of having such dependency on expensive batteries and then gas just doesn't grab me. Maybe I'm missing something.
Like this Reply to this comment by bobbrew October 15, 2009 5:16 AM PDT
Any discussion of Land Ferries?
Like this Reply to this comment by SpiritWater October 15, 2009 9:24 AM PDT
I'd like to see a 2011 or 2012 Hybrid F-150. It is all V8 now with 15mpg city and 21mpg highway but with hybrid technolgies I'm sure it could squeeze-out 3-4 more mpg for each. GM has hybrid trucks so why not Ford?
Like this Reply to this comment by LeRoy_Finkelstein October 15, 2009 9:27 AM PDT
Once we have most of our vehicles on "the grid"... what happens when an enemy takes out our grid?
... Anyone? ... Anyone? ... Bueller?
Like this Reply to this comment by artistjoh October 15, 2009 10:51 AM PDT
If you are pointing out vulnerabilities then perhaps you should mention what happens if a potential enemy takes out foreign oil production which is probably a whole lot easier to do than taking out the domestic electricity grid. Gas guzzlers don't run any better on a lack of gasoline than an electric car runs on a lack of electricity.
Like this by baconstang October 15, 2009 1:14 PM PDT
The enemy HAS taken over the grid.... remember Enron? We sure do in CA.
Like this by ferricoxide October 15, 2009 2:15 PM PDT
Err... Society goes into complete chaos, the economy collapses and you don't really have anywhere you need to go?
Like this by open-mind October 15, 2009 3:45 PM PDT
You're worried about electric cars?
Without electricity, most gasoline pumps won't work either. Nor will it be real safe to drive anywhere. And with the riots and rampant looting, you'd be better off staying home protecting your property anyway. So just relax.
Like this by rmullen0 October 15, 2009 9:27 PM PDT
Put some solar panels on your roof or a small wind turbine in your back yard and generate your own power. It beats relying on oil companies.
Like this by go_blue99 November 1, 2009 11:37 AM PST
Well Dwight,
When an enemy takes out the grid, we won't have electricity for anything, so cars will be the least of our worries.
But you've probably noticed that every few years there are massive outages from grid failures and life seems to go on. Not fun, but people manage to survive for a few days without descending into a lord of the flies scenario.
I think we'll manage.
Like this by SactoGuy018 October 15, 2009 9:41 AM PDT
Interestingly, Ford's own research into hybrid vehicles (remember, the hybrid drivetrain on the Fusion sedan is just as sophisticated as the one on the Toyota Prius) means they will be WAY ahead of GM and Chrysler when it comes to hybrid vehicles. Indeed, not only will the next-generation Focus due next year will likely get a hybrid, but the related Ford Grand C-Max due in the USA fall 2011 will likely include a hybrid version, too.
Like this Reply to this comment by dragonsky1 October 15, 2009 1:42 PM PDT
They will be ahead of Chrylser, but not so much GM. GM has similar sophisticated hybrid technology, but they've only placed it in a select number of vehicles. The Malibu was slated to get a full-hybrid model, though I don't know if that ever came about or not. But they do have full hybrid trucks and SUV's.
GM seems to be focusing primarily on Plug-In hybrids and Extended range electric vehicles, which is probably a better long term plan, as they get considerably higher gas mileage.
And don't forgot, the majority of Ford's hybrid know-how came from what they licensed from Toyota....
Like this by JamesGTRS October 15, 2009 10:05 AM PDT
Ford was working on a Hydraulic Hybrid using hydraulics instead of electric motors. 50-60 mpg was quoted. Not sure where that went.
Like this Reply to this comment by ferricoxide October 15, 2009 2:16 PM PDT
Possibly the same place that Volkswagen's and BMW's diesel hybrids went.
Like this by baconstang October 15, 2009 1:17 PM PDT
Wish I'd bought Ford when it was a dollar. :(
Like this Reply to this comment by ferricoxide October 15, 2009 2:13 PM PDT
Even until "smart grids" become available, it's easy enough to arrange for off-hour charging. I mean, even my dishwasher can be set up on a delay startup. Why can't a car be similarly configured (even configure a draw-rate)? Timers just ain't that difficult.
Like this Reply to this comment by open-mind October 15, 2009 3:48 PM PDT
GM Volt will be able to do that. Most others probably will too.
Like this by HeavyJim October 16, 2009 4:28 AM PDT
by rmullen0 October 15, 2009 9:27 PM PDT
Put some solar panels on your roof or a small wind turbine in your back yard and generate your own power. It beats relying on oil companies.
======================================================
How many do you have installed?
Like this Reply to this comment by joefosho619 October 16, 2009 5:31 PM PDT
Great engineering, but can Ford please hire some new Designers. Have you seen the BMW EfficientDynamics? Pure awesomeness.
Like this Reply to this comment by TogetherinParis November 2, 2009 9:01 PM PST
Electricity does not need large engines. Several small generators can be put into the trunk to run an electric car across country, IF the electric's trunk or other space allows proper venting (easy to do). Honda would be the natural for this design since they already make great small generators, but of course, they're late. Using several generators to power a car would be enough to get it across country, while a single generator could be carried around town for security purposes to be used if the battery fully discharged.
Way to go Ford
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
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